Box 12:University and early working age population

Box 12:University and early working age population

While numbers at 20-24 and 25-29 years have been declining for some years, the Series B projections indicate a general steadying off in this trend. While this change would be very welcome, especially for the higher education sector (and the labour market entry exit ratio, see Box 13), the picture should be treated with caution for planning purposes. The projected arrest in the decline is based on a sustained turnaround in the migration scenario of the past decade, in particular, strong international gain at these ages. As can be seen from the earlier graph depicting overall change by age (Boxes 9a and 9b), the projected improvements at age 25-29 are highly anomalous. The small increase in birth numbers over recent years could - if they remain in Tasmania - assist in sustaining the passage of the wave through to these older ages in a couple of decades time, but the real impact will depend on a continuation of large numbers of international students.

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